The new workweek will begin without any geomagnetic disturbances. According to the forecast from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, on Monday, October 19, the Earth’s magnetic field will be calm, and the planetary Kp index will range from 1.3 to 1.7. For comparison, a level of 5 or higher is considered a magnetic storm.
For most of the day, approximately from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Kyiv time, the index will remain at 1.33. A barely noticeable increase to 1.67 is possible at night and late in the evening, but such fluctuations are unlikely to affect the well-being of weather-sensitive people.
The calm is due to the fact that the influence of a high-speed solar wind flow from a coronal hole—which in recent days had been agitating the magnetosphere up to 4 points—has gradually subsided. The solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 420 km/s, and experts estimate that conditions will return to background levels.
At the same time, the Sun itself has not completely calmed down. Active region 4551 in the southern hemisphere recently produced an M1.3-class flare, which caused brief R1-level radio communication disruptions. The probability of new M-class flares through October 19 is estimated at 20%. A significant coronal mass ejection, recorded on October 17, occurred at the eastern edge of the solar disk and was not directed toward Earth.
NOAA’s long-term forecast indicates that the lull will last at least until Wednesday. Around October 21–23, geomagnetic activity may rise to 3–4 on the Kp scale. This is not yet a storm, but people sensitive to changes in space weather may notice the unstable background conditions.