Aurora forecast map for Europe

It depends on geomagnetic activity, latitude, darkness, cloud cover and light pollution. Northern Europe has the best chance during moderate activity, while central and southern Europe usually need a stronger geomagnetic storm. The map gives an estimated country-level chance for tonight, not a guarantee.

The percentage is a practical visibility score for each country. It combines the expected Kp index, the country's latitude, estimated night cloud cover, Moon illumination and the likelihood of seeing a faint glow near the northern horizon. A higher number means conditions are more promising.

Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland usually have the strongest natural advantage because they are farther north and closer to the auroral oval. Denmark, the Baltic states, Scotland, northern England, Ireland and Poland can also become good targets during stronger geomagnetic storms.

Far northern Europe can see aurora at lower Kp levels, sometimes around Kp 3-4 in good dark locations. Central Europe often needs Kp 6-7 or higher, while southern Europe usually requires a very strong or extreme geomagnetic storm plus clear dark skies.

Kp is only one part of the picture. Thick clouds, a bright Moon, city lights, haze or a blocked northern horizon can hide weak aurora even during a storm. The forecast therefore reduces the score when sky conditions are poor.

Yes. Aurora borealis, northern lights and polar lights are commonly used for the same phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere: charged particles from the Sun interacting with Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere.

The best practical window is the dark part of the night, usually from about 21:00 to 04:00 local time depending on season and country. During an active storm, check the northern sky several times because aurora can appear in waves and fade quickly.

Go as far from city lights as possible, look for an open northern horizon and avoid street lamps or bright phone screens. Coastlines, lakes, fields and hills can work well. Let your eyes adapt to darkness for at least 10-15 minutes.

A camera can collect light for several seconds, so a weak red or green glow may look much brighter in photos than it looks to the naked eye. In central Europe, aurora can sometimes appear as a pale arc, faint glow or reddish tint near the horizon.

The forecast uses NOAA SWPC data for geomagnetic activity and Kp forecasts, Open-Meteo for estimated night cloud cover, SunCalc for Moon illumination and country borders prepared from open geographic datasets. The score is recalculated regularly so the map is not a static mockup.

The page recalculates approximately every 15 minutes. The source datasets have their own update intervals, so the map can change through the evening as new Kp and weather data become available.

No forecast can guarantee visible aurora. Treat the map as a decision helper: it shows where conditions look more favorable tonight, but the final result depends on fast-changing space weather and the sky above your location.